If you have been playing online poker for a while, and always seem to be a victim of variance, is there a way to beat it? Is it possible to plan your games so precisely that poker variance ends up becoming a thing of the past?
In fact, while there is no way to really beat the variance you will experience in online poker, after all it is life, there are some things you can do to minimize its impact.
What is poker variance? — The first thing you need to understand is what exactly is poker variance?
Simply put, it is the difference between what your skills and intellect told you would be the result of playing a certain way over the long-term, and what you are actually experiencing in the short-term.
In other words, if you expected to win $5,000 over a three-month period but, one month in, you have already lost $900.
What causes variance? — Variance is caused by nothing more than luck. That thing that happens to everyone whether we plan for it or not, and whether or not we expect it to happen.
In online poker, that luck may manifest itself in us winning double what we expect to win over a specific period of time. It could also manifest itself by causing us to lose money we did not expect to lose.
What influences variance? — The way you play has a big impact on variance. A player who plays a loose game as opposed to a player who has a much tighter game-playing style will be affected much more by variance.
The type of judi online poker you play also affects variance. Omaha, for instance, is usually affected by variance less than something like Texas Hold’Em.
How much you bet also affects variance as larger stakes affect it far more than smaller ones.
How to beat variance when playing online poker? — One thing you can do is use a poker variance simulator.
You will find these online and all of them only require a little information. In most cases, just your win rate, your standard deviation and the number of hands you have played. The simulator will then calculate what you can expect to happen in future games.
You can also bet lower amounts, as this will affect the amount of variance you experience over a long period of time.
One big way to beat variance, however, is to play many more hands of poker as the more you play the less it impacts the outcome of each game.
While the last strategy will not defeat variance completely, it will mean variance will impact each hand you play less and less, simply because you are playing more of them. The same amount of variance will still occur, but it will be spread out over many more hands.